Joined: 08 Jul 2003
Posts: 4996
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Decade of Crap-NO EXCUSES for Eddie or Alan-3Q results? | |
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With the end of the third quarter coming no doubt will hear the excuses like bad economy,poor housing market etc but this has been going on for YEARS.
Sears in particular has experienced SSS D E C L I N E S 27 out of the last 31 quarters. Starting with the wheelman's Alan Lacy 1st quarter in control 4Q 2000. 4Q 2000 SSS increase +.9% 1Q 2001 SSS decline -1.5% 2Q 2001 SSS decline -.9% 3Q 2001 SSS decline -2.9% 4Q 2001 SSS decline -3.6% 1Q 2002 SSS decline -2.4% 2Q 2002 SSS decline -4.6% 3Q 2002 SSS decline -6.9% 4Q 2002 SSS increase +2.8% 1Q 2003 SSS decline -6.7% 2Q 2003 SSS decline -3.5% 3Q 2003 SSS increase +1.2% 4Q 2003 SSS decline -2.1% 1Q 2004 SSS increase +1.6% 2Q 2004 SSS decline -2.6% 3Q 2004 SSS decline -4.0% 4Q 2004 SSS decline -.2% -the wheelman Alan Lacy = SSS DECLINES in 13 of 17 quarters,NO consecutive increases. The Eddie/Aylwin years-Sears only: 1Q 2005 SSS decline -3.1% 2Q 2005 SSS decline -3.0% 3Q 2005 SSS decline -.9% 4Q 2005 SSS decline -6.1% 1Q 2006 SSS decline -6.6% 2Q 2006 SSS decline -3.9% 3Q 2006 SSS decline -4.8% 4Q 2006 SSS decline -6.1% 1Q 2007 SSS decline -3.4% 2Q 2007 SSS decline -4.3% 3Q 2007 SSS decline -4.2% 4Q 2007 SSS decline -4.0% 1Q 2008 SSS decline -9.8% 2Q 2008 SSS decline -6.7% SSS DECLINES 14 of 14 quarters brought to you by Edward Lampert and Aylwin Lewis.Pathetic,absolutely pathetic. So when the the 3rd Quarter 2008 results comeout what WILL be YOUR excuse Eddie,Bruce,Kevin-what WILL be YOUR excuse?How the frack can you blame the credit/banking/realestate mess on these results. So if you thrown the wheelman's Alan Lacy years that's SSS DECLINES during 27 of 31 quarters. ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC! *From sec.gov ;forms SEC 10-Q and 8-K 2001-2008 |
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Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1716
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: | |
Very interesting. I always enjoy your statistical studies, DR.  I notice that every one of Lacy's 3 quarterly increases was against an "easy" comparison. They did so bad the year before they almost couldn't help but show an increase the following year. And look at how badly Sears did during the highest flying years of the real estate boom 2003-2006.
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Joined: 06 Jul 2003
Posts: 7077
Location: Central CA
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:16 pm Post subject: | |
Thanks a million for that work DR. I wish I wasn't so damned lazy sometimes. 
What I see here is: 1. that the ONLY increases that have taken place since Lacy and Eddie first started sniffing each other's butts took place BEFORE the merger. 2. That the average quarterly decline BEFORE the merger was 2.08% 3. That the average quarterly decline AFTER the merger was 4.77% What I guess I'm trying to do here is reply to those Lampert supporters who have claimed that if he hadn't come along and "rescued" the company, everyone here would have been out of a job already. My reply?  ppPPPppPppPPPPPPPPpppppP
It's obvious that sales declines more than doubled after Lampert took over and that the company... as a retail organization.... has declined a hell of a lot faster since merely stupid people at Hoffman were replaced by Lampert's crew who... if you believe everything they've said as to their intent for the company... are just as stupid AND ultra greedy to boot. I'm betting that the employees would have been better off today... and for longer into the future... if we'd never heard of Eddie Lampert. |
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Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 382
Location: Was Somewhere in FL, Now In IL
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: | |
| And if it were us as individuals, wouldn't we be strung out to dry??? | |
Joined: 09 Jul 2003
Posts: 699
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:09 pm Post subject: | |
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I wouldn't 'take it to the bank' , but an old ASM friend of mine when asked about Oct sales, whispered in my ear, company is down 19% MTD.
I would have prefered looking over his shoulder at the CRT screen... Perhaps a 'low water mark' [?] |
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Joined: 19 Oct 2003
Posts: 2625
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:10 pm Post subject: | |
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AND "I HAVE A DREAM OF A 100 BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY"
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Joined: 04 Jul 2003
Posts: 2205
Location: A little bit sideways!
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: | |
| Great job with that dictators_rule! ~GoodFella | |
Joined: 04 Jul 2003
Posts: 2205
Location: A little bit sideways!
| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:59 am Post subject: | |
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Looking around trying to find more on this.
http://www.hoovers.com/free/co/sec.xhtml?ID=11338&Page=1&Sort=FA A bunch of SEC Filings out of order but I'm working it. The 2000 annual report pdf style. http://www.searsarchives.com/history/annual_reports/2000annualreport.pdf Once again good job on this dictator. ~GoodFella |
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Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1716
| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:42 pm Post subject: | |||
Great insights. The closest Lampert got to an increase was the 3rd quarter of 2004. And that was an easy comparison against one of Lacy's quarters. The rate of decrease is climbing, and it seems likely they'll break into double digits on the next report.
What might have happened if EL had never appeared on the scene? We know Sears had a winning concept with Grand early in this decade, and a lot of money to build them. They could now have 100's of these stores operating. They might've even made some money on selling old full line stores into the euphoric real estate market. Instead, EL did nothing but bleed the retail business and buy back shares. He and his cronies are just vampires. |
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Joined: 08 Jul 2003
Posts: 4996
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: Part II-the competition | |
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Second that,great analysis and insight from all
Comparing Sears results to the competition including those based mostly in the dying mall format still shows Seasr as the laggard. Some competition SSS results from 2005,the peak of the boom: SSS-Costco 1Q 2005-7% increase 2Q 2005-7% increase 3Q 2005-7% increase 4Q 2005-11% increase SSS-Best Buy 1Q 2005-4.4% increase 2Q 2005-3.5% increase 3Q 2005-3.6% increase 4Q 2005-4.6% increase SSS-Home Depot 1Q 2005-2.1% increase 2Q 2005-4.0% increase 3Q 2005-3.6% increase 4Q 2005-4.6% increase SSS-Lowes 1Q 2005-3.8% increase 2Q 2005-6.5% increase 3Q 2005-6.2% increase 4Q 2005-7.8% increase SSS-Target 1Q 2005-6.2% increase 2Q 2005-6.7% increase 3Q 2005-5.9% increase 4Q 2005-4.2% increase SSS-Federated/Macys 1Q 2005-2.6% increase 2Q 2005-1.1% increase 3Q 2005-.6% increase 4Q 2005-1.1% increase SSS-J C Penney Co 1Q 2005-3.0% increase 2Q 2005-4.2% increase 3Q 2005-5.2% increase 4Q 2005-2.5% increase SSS-Sears/SHLD 1Q 2005-3.1% decrease 2Q 2005-3.0% decrease 3Q 2005-0.9% decrease 4Q 2005-6.1% decrease Compared to 7 different yet direct competitors to Sears,Sears looks like squat.Penneys and Macys who are based mostly in mall stores;a dying format were still able to show increases.And since the competition is showing increases as Sears was/IS showing decreases that tells me there are Sears customers going to the competition. For Sears 2005 also covers the best of both world-YIKES:2005 Sears was still basically operating under the policies,processes and budgets put in place by the wheelman Alan Lacy.It wasn't til 2006 that the full impact of " the merger " started to take effect.And yet 2005 Sears still had the name recognition in the press from the media and a hedgefund manager that COULD have made a positive impact.Instead,MORE of the SOS for Sears. And to all those that want to make the excuse that Sears has too much competition,don't you think the competitors see it the same way.Don't you think a Penneys or Macys knows that they have to deal with a Sears siphoning off softline sales in the same mall especailly.The competition thing works both ways. From SEC Forms 10-Q and 8-K Last edited by dictators_rule on Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:43 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Joined: 06 Jul 2003
Posts: 7077
Location: Central CA
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: | |
| More great work DR. Thanks. It should put it into perspective even for the diehards like Northwest. | |
Joined: 08 Jul 2003
Posts: 4996
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:47 pm Post subject: PERSPECTIVE | |
| And that's why I did it.Sometimes it's best just to lay it out.What the heck the company loves to post these stats and more on a daily basis to the employees.But there are still coaches at the store level that have NO glue about the big picture or the impact or not of the policies and procedures they are perpetuating/enforcing. | |
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1716
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: | |
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Great job again DR. Your analysis is better than 99.9% of the stuff that comes out in the popular media. By considering the effect of the boom we get a better picture of the destruction caused by Lacy /Lampert.
At a glance it looks like the boom was good for about a 3% lift. A real retailer like Costco gets pushed to 7-10% and the marginal companies like JCP at least get to positive numbers. Then there is the stripped out hedge fund vehicle SHC, which is sinking so fast the rising tide can't even get it to positive numbers. Now with the boom over, the numbers drop at least 3% for everybody and Sears is pushing toward 10% sales declines. |
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Joined: 08 Jul 2003
Posts: 4996
| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 4:00 am Post subject: eddie doesn't disappoint | |
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Eddie doesn't disappoint http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/earns_sears.html?v=14
So that's 15 straight quarters of SSS declines for the ESL crew and 28 of 32 quarters for Sears this decade . And the competition showed declines as well but guess who leads the pack - SEARS Some competition results for the 3rd quarter or the last known results 2008 . Home Depot : SSS decline 8.3% Target : SSS decline 3.3% J C Penney : SSS decline 10.1% Lowes : SSS decline 5.7% Best Buy : SSS increase 3.6% * Costco : SSS increase 2% * SHLD/Sears : SSS DECLINE 10.6% * Results for quarters ending in August or September ,ALL resutls from Yahoo news . The only one even close is Penneys at 10.1 % followed by Home Depot at 8.3% .Even though Lowes had a decrease they an an increase in customers and showed an increase in L&G/outdoor power . Costco and Best Buy are the only ones showing an SSS increase . Don't even try the housing merket or the mortgage mess EXCUSE . |
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Joined: 31 Aug 2006
Posts: 155
| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject: | |
| I wonder if overstaffing (LRQ's) in HA and understaffing in the rest of the store, nit-wit insensative district, store and dept. "coaches", creepy high PA and RA and pressure on the customer to "have" to purchase them, erosion of employee benefits (resulting in apathy), uncompetative pricing, terrible support services, the call centers for the stores,delivery and installation outsourced and corporate greed have to do with anything related to our dismall performance? | |
Joined: 08 Aug 2005
Posts: 491
| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: | |
| It's bad management and the way they screw employees. Every time I visit my old store, about half the employees I see are new. Do they really think word doesn't get around? Also, since they started playing games with coupons and discounts, I can get many items cheaper elsewhere. | |
Joined: 19 Oct 2003
Posts: 2625
| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: | |||
No stupid, It was the hurricanes! 
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