Nofsdad
Joined: 06 Jul 2003
Posts: 7085
Location: Central CA
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Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms
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Of course our own resident meteorological experts have already told us that the reports of adverse effects from global warming are nothing but a crock but if you're interested in actual data and real information, you might want to consider this study by NOAA.
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As humans emit more greenhouse gases, North America is likely to experience more droughts and excessive heat even as intense downpours and hurricanes increase, according to a report issued today by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
The 162-page study, which was led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, provides the most comprehensive assessment yet of how global warming has helped to transform the climate of the United States and Canada over the past 50 years, and how it may do so in the future. |
I spent my career, which started 48 of those 50 years ago and spanned 33 years of it, in a profession that revolved around these exact same weather "patterns" and it wasn't hard to see when the regular succession of repetitive patterns started to break down. We knew damned well that things were changing when we started moving from 5-6 month fire seasons here in CA to today's norm of 10-11 months per year.
According to Henry Diaz, who has been researching meteorological records in the West for NOAA since the l990s, temperatures in mountains across the Southwest have risen about two degrees Fahrenheit in the last 30 years.
Snows in the high mountains are melting about two weeks earlier than in the past. At lower elevations, such as in Ventura County, the temperature rise has been less, but Diaz says that the Southwest has been in a drought since l999.
Which NOT coincidentally is just about the same period in which we've seen the most massive increases in the number and intensity of large wildland fires that have severely taxed the ability of the state to respond adequately to these types of disasters.
Other states have experienced similar increases in wildland fire occurrence , most notably Florida and Georgia, although their changes haven't been as pronounced as those in California due to the widely varying topography and other factors influencing weather here.
The Rest Of The Story
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Nofsdad
Joined: 06 Jul 2003
Posts: 7085
Location: Central CA
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Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:08 am Post subject:
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Maybe some of our weather "experts" have an explanation... something Rush might have mentioned in the last couple of days or that they heard on Fox News... but in the 47 years since I first went to work fighting these things for a living , this has NOT happened before.
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| SAN FRANCISCO - In less than a day, an electrical storm unleashed nearly 8,000 lightning strikes that set more than 800 wildfires across Northern California — a rare example of "dry lightning" that brought little or no rain but plenty of sparks to the state's parched forests and grasslands. |
Not to say we've never HAD dry lightning busts... major ones usually occur on about a 4-6 year cycle in that part of the state. But NEVER have we had one of this intensity this early in the year. Hard to shrug off that there's something different about the emerging weather patterns.
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| The weekend storm was unusual not only because it generated so many lightning strikes over a large geographical area, but also because it struck so early in the season and moved in from the Pacific Ocean. Such storms usually don't arrive until late July or August and typically form southeast of California. |
I'm trying to remember if I EVER saw a major lightning bust in Northern CA originate from an offshore storm early enough in the year so as to deliver so little precip to the fuel bed.
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| "You're looking at a pattern that's climatologically rare. We typically don't see this happen at this time of summer," said John Juskie, a science officer with the National Weather Service in Sacramento. "To see 8,000, that's way up there on the scale." |
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| Thousands of firefighters battled the blazes Tuesday from the ground and air. The lightning-caused fires have scorched tens of thousands of acres and forced hundreds of residents to flee their homes, though few buildings have been destroyed, said Daniel Berlant, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. |
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| "It's just extremely, extremely dry," Berlant said. "That means any little spark has the potential to cause a large fire. The public needs to be extra cautious because we don't need any additional wildfires." |
While high temps, low humidities and upslope winds usually produce low fuel moistures during the hottest parts of the day, the kind of low average fuel moistures we're seeing right now are definitely not normal.
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| Despite the many lightning strikes that hit the ground on Saturday alone, the weekend thunderstorm brought little precipitation because the rain evaporated in hot, dry layers of the atmosphere before it hit the ground, Juskie said. |
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| The lightning storm struck California when the state was experiencing one of its driest years on record. Earlier this month, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a statewide drought and directed agencies to speed up water deliveries to drought-stricken areas. Many communities are have adopted strict conservation measures. |
The Rest Of The Story
Of course I know nothing compared to the "experts" but based on my personal experience, something is sure as hell different out there today. [/quote]
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